Experiments

V32: Drought Autopsy

V32: Drought Autopsy

Status: Complete. 50 seeds x 30 cycles x 5 droughts each (250 total drought events).

Question: What happens DURING drought that determines whether a seed develops high Φ\intinfo? showed post-drought bounce predicts final Φ\intinfo, but what creates the bounce?

Result: Integration is trajectory, not event. Mean Φ=0.086±0.032\intinfo = 0.086 \pm 0.032 (95% CI [0.077, 0.095]). Distribution: 22% HIGH / 46% MODERATE / 32% LOW. Max Φ=0.473\intinfo = 0.473 (seed 23, new all-time record). Mean drought mortality 96.8%.

Integration Distribution (V32, 50 seeds)same architecture, same environment — only biography differs0.000.050.100.150.200.300.400.50Φ (late-phase integration)32% LOW(16 seeds)46% MOD(23 seeds)22% HIGH(11 seeds)

Key revision from : The first drought bounce does NOT predict final category (r=0.075,p=0.60r = -0.075, p = 0.60). What predicts is the mean bounce across all 5 droughts (ρ=0.599,p=4.4×106\rho = 0.599, p = 4.4 \times 10^{-6}). Integration is built by repeatedly bouncing back, not by a single event. Φ\intinfo trajectory slope separates categories perfectly (ANOVA F=34.38,p=6.3×1010F = 34.38, p = 6.3 \times 10^{-10}): every HIGH seed has positive slope, every LOW seed has negative slope.

Robustness is orthogonal to integration (Mann-Whitney p=0.73p = 0.73). Seeds that survive droughts well are not the same seeds that develop high Φ\intinfo. Effective rank (mean 8.1) does not differ across categories.

“Integration is biography” had a null hypothesis to defeat — and the falsifier has now been run. The result — that ~22% of seeds reach HIGH Φ\intinfo, that the category is set by the cumulative trajectory rather than initial conditions — is romantic, and it is also exactly what one would see if Φ\intinfo were a noisy quantity in a system with sensitive dependence on its evolutionary path. Under that null, the “trajectory” is just integrated noise, the “HIGH” seeds are the lucky tail of a stochastic process, and the slope that “cleanly separates categories” is fit to its own outcome. Because this program has already retracted one finding to a measurement artifact — the zeroed-buffer / 1D-energy-counter collapse (see above) — the standard of proof was set high. The explicit obligation was: re-measure the seeds from saved state, show that Φ replicates on an independent re-run, and show that it is predictable from trajectory features computed before the outcome is known.

Verdict: the biographical reading survives the noise null. The full 50-seed V32 protocol was re-run from scratch on independent hardware (an NVIDIA GB10 under JAX 0.10.1, versus the original run); analysis code is , a pure-numpy re-implementation of the Φ measure runnable offline from the committed per-seed records. (1) Cross-run reproduction: per-seed late Φ\intinfo reproduces between the two independent runs at r=0.951r = 0.951 (50/50 seeds, mean absolute difference 0.00550.0055); matched per-cycle Φ trajectories agree to 108\sim 10^{-8}, and the category distribution reproduces (HIGH 24% vs 22%, mean Φ\intinfo 0.086 vs 0.088). A noisy quantity with no stable latent cause would not reproduce per-seed across independent runs; this one does. (2) Degeneracy guard: every alive-bearing snapshot (334 of them; 16 extinction-moment snapshots correctly skipped) carries real signal — zero degenerate hidden states — so the zeroed-buffer artifact that sank the earlier analyses is demonstrably absent from this (V27/V32) path. (3) Predictability from pre-outcome features: late Φ\intinfo is forecast by the mean drought bounce (r=0.60r = 0.60) but not by the first bounce alone (r=0.07r = -0.07) — the category is built by the sustained pattern of recovery, the trajectory-dependence the biographical reading claims, not a single lucky event. The falsifier passed on all three counts; “integration is biography” has met its stated test against the measurement-noise null.

The Bottleneck FurnaceRepeated near-extinction forges integration — or fails toΦ (integration)0.000.050.100.15HIGH seed (forged)LOW seed (eroded)popevolution cycles → (red bands = drought, 90–97% mortality)
The Bottleneck Furnace in action. 256 agents face 5 near-extinction events (93-98% mortality). Survivors rebuild the population each time. The Φ\intinfo chart tracks integration climbing — each recovery bounces higher than the last. 12 seconds of simulated evolution compressed from 30 cycles.
Integration Is Biography — Seed 23. The highest-Φ\intinfo seed in 50 () climbs from 0.058 to 0.473 across 30 evolutionary cycles. Each drought (red bands) drops Φ\intinfo, but each recovery bounces back higher. The envelope of peaks rises steadily — the furnace forges by compressing, not accumulating.

Source code

Study record — canonical metadata, result path, status, seeds, and key finding.

  • Fine-grained drought tracking
  • 50-seed GPU runner
  • Drought autopsy analysis