V32: Drought Autopsy
V32: Drought Autopsy
Status: Complete. 50 seeds x 30 cycles x 5 droughts each (250 total drought events).
Question: What happens DURING drought that determines whether a seed develops high ? showed post-drought bounce predicts final , but what creates the bounce?
Result: Integration is trajectory, not event. Mean (95% CI [0.077, 0.095]). Distribution: 22% HIGH / 46% MODERATE / 32% LOW. Max (seed 23, new all-time record). Mean drought mortality 96.8%.
Key revision from : The first drought bounce does NOT predict final category (). What predicts is the mean bounce across all 5 droughts (). Integration is built by repeatedly bouncing back, not by a single event. trajectory slope separates categories perfectly (ANOVA ): every HIGH seed has positive slope, every LOW seed has negative slope.
Robustness is orthogonal to integration (Mann-Whitney ). Seeds that survive droughts well are not the same seeds that develop high . Effective rank (mean 8.1) does not differ across categories.
“Integration is biography” had a null hypothesis to defeat — and the falsifier has now been run. The result — that ~22% of seeds reach HIGH , that the category is set by the cumulative trajectory rather than initial conditions — is romantic, and it is also exactly what one would see if were a noisy quantity in a system with sensitive dependence on its evolutionary path. Under that null, the “trajectory” is just integrated noise, the “HIGH” seeds are the lucky tail of a stochastic process, and the slope that “cleanly separates categories” is fit to its own outcome. Because this program has already retracted one finding to a measurement artifact — the zeroed-buffer / 1D-energy-counter collapse (see above) — the standard of proof was set high. The explicit obligation was: re-measure the seeds from saved state, show that Φ replicates on an independent re-run, and show that it is predictable from trajectory features computed before the outcome is known.
Verdict: the biographical reading survives the noise null. The full 50-seed V32 protocol was re-run from scratch on independent hardware (an NVIDIA GB10 under JAX 0.10.1, versus the original run); analysis code is , a pure-numpy re-implementation of the Φ measure runnable offline from the committed per-seed records. (1) Cross-run reproduction: per-seed late reproduces between the two independent runs at (50/50 seeds, mean absolute difference ); matched per-cycle Φ trajectories agree to , and the category distribution reproduces (HIGH 24% vs 22%, mean 0.086 vs 0.088). A noisy quantity with no stable latent cause would not reproduce per-seed across independent runs; this one does. (2) Degeneracy guard: every alive-bearing snapshot (334 of them; 16 extinction-moment snapshots correctly skipped) carries real signal — zero degenerate hidden states — so the zeroed-buffer artifact that sank the earlier analyses is demonstrably absent from this (V27/V32) path. (3) Predictability from pre-outcome features: late is forecast by the mean drought bounce () but not by the first bounce alone () — the category is built by the sustained pattern of recovery, the trajectory-dependence the biographical reading claims, not a single lucky event. The falsifier passed on all three counts; “integration is biography” has met its stated test against the measurement-noise null.
Source code
Study record — canonical metadata, result path, status, seeds, and key finding.
- — Fine-grained drought tracking
- — 50-seed GPU runner
- — Drought autopsy analysis